THE NORTH EAST TODAY

1.19 The North East is generally regarded as one of the UK’s most prosperous economies, yet faces a number of immediate challenges, if full advantage is to be taken of the area’s economic, social, environmental and cultural attributes.

1.20 The area also cannot ignore the long-term challenge set by global issues, such as rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the potential effects of climate change, and these issues influence the way in which immediate problems must be met.

1.21 These issues are clearly recognised in national planning policy guidelines, and the structure plan has an important role in determining how to approach them.

1.22 Within the North East, the influence of oil and gas exploration over the past 30 years has helped raise living standards, and income levels have consistently been above national averages. This has been accompanied by a high demand for land for a wide range of uses including housing, business and industry, shopping, leisure and recreation.

1.23 However, these developments have not spread benefits in equal measure to all parts of the North East, nor to all parts of the community, even in the more affluent areas. In certain localities, for example where there is a greater dependence on fishing and agriculture, the economic position is often much less vibrant and more fragile. The decline in fishing and farming incomes in 2000 and early 2001 have made the situation even more acute and these sectors will require major structural support.

1.24 There are also situations, in both urban and rural areas, where access to housing, employment and skills training is limited. Remoteness in parts of the area has left some communities overlooked in the provision of new services and facilities, while others have lost what they had. There is a real need for social inclusion both within urban areas and in less accessible rural communities.

1.25 Recent forecasts suggest there could be a fall in the number of North East jobs – about 16,000 by 2016 - if current trends continue. There are fluctuations in this figure, sometimes upwards, sometimes downwards, but the overall trend remains. This is due mainly to a decline in the North Sea oil and gas, manufacturing and primary sectors.

1.26 Economic development initiatives are being undertaken to take advantage of the qualities of the area as a place to live, work and do business. These initiatives also seek to capitalise on the skills which exist within communities, and will seek to enhance the perception of the North East as a competitive business location.

1.27 Predicted changes in population over the next 10 to 15 years also pose new challenges. Population is expected to fall by 3% between 1998 and 2016, a drop of more than 13,000. Different age groups will experience different trends, but the overall picture is of an ageing population.

1.28 There will, however, remain a high demand for housing as more single and two-person households are created. Recent forecasts indicate a need for about 18,000 houses by 2011, with roughly two-thirds of these needed within the Aberdeen Housing Market Area, which extends to a 30 kilometre (approx. 20 mile) arc around the city. Improved economic performance would increase these numbers.

1.29 It should be noted that the overall numbers and changing character of the profile of households now make impractical one possible response that was aired under the last structure plan, namely to concentrate development in a new settlement.

1.30 In summary, the long-term challenge is to set a sustainable framework as the area’s underlying local approach to global issues. Within this context the short to medium-term challenge is to hone the area’s economy to a new competitive edge, which will allow us to outperform the currently predicted economic trends and forecasts.